Reviving the Independence Dream: John Swinney's Strategic Balancing Act

John Swinney, the First Minister of Scotland, has recently reignited discussions around Scottish independence, a topic that, while a core mission of the Scottish National Party (SNP), has seen a relative decline in attention following their electoral setbacks. During the recent Scotland 2050 conference, he emphasized that Scotland has been treated as an “afterthought” by Westminster and possesses the capacity to thrive independently.

For the past year, leading SNP figures, including Swinney, have focused primarily on day-to-day governance rather than on pushing for independence, especially after their dramatic fall from political grace in the 2024 general election where they lost 39 of their 48 seats to Labour. This defeat marked a significant shift, revealing that many traditional SNP supporters opted to vote for Labour instead of turning out for the SNP, thus putting pressure on Swinney, who has only recently taken over the leadership from Humza Yousaf.

Amidst internal challenges like gender politics disputes, environmental commitments, and investigations into party financial misconduct, Swinney’s strategy includes not only restoring confidence within the party but also focusing on pressing issues like NHS waiting times and child poverty. This pivot is seen as crucial for rebuilding trust with voters.

Current opinion polls indicate heightened support for independence that surpasses support for the SNP itself, presenting a potential opportunity for Swinney to re-engage with the independence narrative without alienating voters who prioritize governance issues.

The dual approach in his strategy reveals a tension; too much focus on independence might distract from daily governance efforts, while too little could alienate critical party supporters. Striking the right balance becomes paramount as the SNP faces scrutiny over its long-term incumbency and the growing list of issues Scotland grapples with, from healthcare to infrastructure.

In tandem with advocating for independence, Swinney announced ambitious plans for a ”digital refit” of public services, although it’s clear that not all issues will be resolved by the next Holyrood election in May 2026. As opponents seize upon the memories of the 2014 independence referendum, arguing against its revival amidst global instability, Swinney seeks to navigate this complex landscape, with upcoming discussions at the SNP’s national council expected to further define the party’s direction on independence amidst a changing political climate.